Chain Store Sales

The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi/US Warburg U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index is one of the longest running chain store indices. It tracks spending at major chain stores that fit in the "General Merchandise, Apparel and Furniture" category, based on a representative sample of seven (7) large retailers on a weekly basis:
_ Dayton Hudson (DH)
_ Federated (FD)
_ Kmart (KM)
_ May (MAY)
_ J.C. Penney (JCP)
_ Sears (S)
_ Wal-Mart (WMT)
The Mitsubishi Index includes only "same-store" sales (from stores that have been in business for at least a year). Because of this, retail industry expansion is not immediately captured in the index, and thus it tends to underestimate sales growth. Also, due to week-to-week volatility, it has little to say about broader consumption patterns. The monthly measure of sales is better at predicting the general merchandise and apparel components. The  Redbook Index focuses on Department Stores, a group of 15 companies accounting for roughly 85% of the department store category in the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report. As above, the monthly retail sales report has a somewhat better track record for predicting chain store sales. Chain store sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also a sense of the trends among individual retailers and the different store categories. The release's value is as an early indication of consumer spending, an important macroeconomic indicator. The index is not itself a macroeconomic indicator. These indicators have some market importance as they are timely but volatile and are especially interesting during key sales seasons, such as August and December. Chain Store Sales reports are released at 9:00 (CST) each Tuesday. The releases are provided to subscribers much earlier and are typically leaked to the rest of the market long before official release times.
Mitsubishi is typically leaked by 7:00 (CST) and the Redbook survey by 13:15 (CST).

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON INTEREST RATES: LOW